Stocks had a wild roller coaster ride

Stocks were on a roller coaster ride last week!

On Monday, stocks were higher after a weekend meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi.

It sounded like the two countries were eager to work together on trade. The U.S. promised to not raise tariffs at the beginning of 2019, and China committed to buying more from the U.S. to reduce the trade deficit between the two countries. The goal was to have trade differences hashed out over the next 90 days.


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But so much for the optimism…it was all downhill from there.

The S&P lost 3.2% on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, U.S. markets were closed to honor former President H.W. Bush.

Then on Thursday, stocks were tanking again.


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But there was a midday comeback after two Fed Presidents said that rates were approaching the neutral level. Around the time of the bounce a Wall Street Journal report also came out, saying the Fed could be more cautious after a rate hike in December.

The S&P finished Thursday with a 0.2% loss. But the loss felt great. Especially since the S&P was down as much as 3.0% during the day!

Then on Friday it was nothing but selling again. The S&P lost 2.3% and finished the week with near lows with a 4.6% loss. This is the 2nd biggest weekly loss of the year.


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Here’s what traders were focused on last week:

Trade – There were mixed messages all week about trade. On Monday, it sounded like the weekend meeting between the U.S. and China was a success. But then President Trump was tweeting that he was a “tariff guy” and there were rumors that China was confused about the progress and comments Trump made.

Meng Wanzhou’s Arrest – The CFO of Huawei, one of the largest smartphone companies in the world, was arrested in Canada for violating U.S. trade sanctions on Iran. The arrest has led to increased trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The U.S. has claimed that Meng sold equipment to Iran through a shell company.

The Fed – The Fed is expected to raise rates at their December meeting on December 19th. But traders are focusing on what the Fed plans to do next year. And any Fed news or comments about the “neutral” level and slowing rate hikes, is definitely considered a positive for stocks.


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Here’s where the major indices ended the week:

  • The S&P finished with a 4.6% loss. Down 127 points, the S&P ended at 2,633.
  • The DOW ended lower by 4.5%. Dropping 1150 points, the DOW closed at 24,389.
  • The NASDAQ was down 4.9%. With a 361 point loss, the NASDAQ finished at 6,969.
  • Bitcoin finished lower by 14.8%. Down $575, Bitcoin ended at $3,320.

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Crude Oil (CL) was higher for the 2nd week in a row. With a 3.2% gain, CL finished at $52.60 a barrel. The move higher came after an OPEC meeting resulted in a tentative deal to cut oil output.

The VIX (aka “Fear Index”) jumped 28.6% last week. It didn’t rise to the levels that we saw in February and mid-October. But it was the 4th highest weekly close of the year.

In earnings news, lululemon athletica (LULU) lost 13.4% even though earnings beat analyst expectations.Ulta Beauty (ULTA) lost 13.1% after worse than expected guidance.

Source: RockwellTrading by Markus Heitkoetter | Original Link

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Stocks open lower as traders digest a weaker-than-expected jobs report

Stocks opened lower on Friday as Wall Street parsed through a U.S. jobs report that handily missed expectations.
The U.S. economy added 155,000 jobs last month.

Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a gain of 198,000 jobs. Wage growth also missed estimates.

The report initially sent stock futures higher as investors interpreted the weak data as a sign the Federal Reserve could slow down its pace of interest rate hikes in the future.

But Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones, said the numbers released Friday are not enough to deviate the Fed from its monetary-policy trajectory at this point. “The market is reading too much into this,” Warne said. “The report was solid, not great, but it is still enough to keep the pace on track.”


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Friday’s moves come after stocks rebounded from sharp losses on Thursday on media reports that the Fed could tighten monetary policy at a slower-than-expected pace.

The Wall Street Journal reported the central bank is considering whether to signal a wait-and-see approach to rate hikes at its upcoming meeting this month. The report said Fed officials do not know what their next move on rates will be after December. As a result, The Dow closed 79.40 points lower at 24,947.67 after plunging nearly 800 points earlier in the day.

Stocks initially fell sharply on Thursday on concern regarding U.S.-China trade relations. Investors worried about the U.S. and China striking a permanent deal on trade after news of the Huawei CFO’s arrest broke. The arrest was made on Dec. 1.

“You’ve gone from a period of zero sensitivity to headlines to a period of hypersensitivity,” said James Athey, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “We’re now in a world where no one knows which way is up and which way is down.”

Friday concludes what has been a volatile week for Wall Street. Both the Dow and S&P 500 were down 2.3 percent for the week through Thursday’s close, while the Nasdaq had fallen 1.9 percent.


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Stock Market Update Thursday, December 6th, 2018

Markets were closed yesterday to honor former President George H.W. Bush. And today, stocks started the day right where they left off on Tuesday…lower!


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After the lower start, stocks continued to drop in the first 30 minutes of trading. Markets were sideways for the rest of the morning, then the major indices sold off again right before lunch.

But at 11:30am ET, stocks turned on a dime.


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The reversal came after Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that rates are approaching the neutral rate and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that rates are close to neutral. There was also a Wall Street Journal report making the case for a more cautious Fed, following a December rate hike.

From that point on, the major indices rallied, trying to make up for the early losses.

The S&P was down almost 3.0% but managed to erase most of the losses for the day. And the NASDAQ was down 2.4% before rallying to end the day with a 0.4% gain.


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Here’s where the major indices ended the day:

  • The S&P finished with a 0.2% loss. Down 4 points, the S&P ended at 2,696.
  • The DOW ended lower by 0.3%. Dropping 79 points, the DOW closed at 24,948.
  • The NASDAQ was up 0.4%. With a 30 point gain, the NASDAQ finished at 7,188.
  • Bitcoin finished lower by 3.3%. Down $120, Bitcoin ended at $3,565.

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Crude Oil (CL) found support around the $50 mark, after an early drop. With a 2.6% loss, CL finished at $51.54 a barrel.

Trade concerns were the driver behind today’s swings (again). But this time concerns didn’t stem from a tweet.

Chinese CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Canada for violating U.S. trade sanctions on Iran. She’s the CFO of one of the largest smartphone companies in the world and she could be extradited to the U.S. But the Chinese embassy in Canada is calling the arrest a human rights violation.

Although the arrest occurred on Saturday it was first reported Wednesday. But after the news, analysts at Deutsche Bank are saying the probability of a U.S.-China trade agreement occurring before March 1st is now 30%, down from 40%.

And here’s an interesting number for the day…the U.S. trade deficit was $55.5 billion in October. This is the highest it has been in 10 years and about 11.4% higher than it was last year…in spite of tariffs.

Hewlett Packard (HPE) was up nicely today, rallying 6.5% after better than expected earnings.

Source: RockwellTrading by Markus Heitkoetter | Original Link

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Dow set to fall by nearly 400 points at the open as market sell-off continues

U.S. stock futures indicated a sharply lower open on Thursday amid lingering anxiety about a possible economic slowdown and continued murkiness around trade relations with China.

Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou was arrested by Canadian authorities on Wednesday in Vancouver, where she faces extradition to the U.S. The arrest decreases the likelihood that a permanent U.S.-China trade deal will be reached. Huawei is one of the largest mobile phone makers in the world.

As of 7:10 a.m. ET Thursday, futures indicated that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would open 387.07 points lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also pointed to a lower open across Wall Street.

When futures opened overnight, there was an initial plunge lower on heavy volume that spooked traders but the futures rebounded off those lows. There were some reports from traders and media that the CME Group had to halt trading during the volatile overnight session.

A sharp decline in oil prices added to Wall Street’s skittishness on Thursday. U.S. crude futures for January delivery fell 2.6 percent to $51.51 per barrel after the Saudi energy minister proposed a production cut that was smaller than expected.


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The New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury market were closed Wednesday as the nation remembered former president George H.W. Bush. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 800 points in its largest decline since Oct. 10.

On Monday, the yield on the three-year Treasury note surpassed its five-year counterpart. That bond-market phenomenon, known as a yield-curve inversion, is seen as a recession signal. But typically the recession doesn’t come until years after and many traders won’t see the inversion as official until the two-year yield rises above the 10-year yield.

Investors remain uncertain about the prospects of a permanent trade deal with China. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss ongoing trade quarrels between their two countries. While the White House has said it has worked out a cease-fire with Beijing, discrepancies in messaging haven’t assuaged market fears of uncertainty.

“Unfortunately until we get new news the market continues to be a caldron of concerns causing caution with investors,” said Art Hogan, B. Riley FBR’s chief market strategist. “With the combination of he said Xi said on China trade, a fear of an economic slowdown in 2019, and the slow trickle of Mueller investigation reports coming out, it is not at all surprising to see a buyer’s strike in the after hours market.”

Still, Hogan added, there will be a “plethora of data as markets open on Thursday and on Friday with the jobs report that might turn the tide of negative sentiment.” But until then, he said, “we are stuck in a news vacuum and most of the news that we do have leans to the negative.”

 

Source: cnbc.com | Original Link

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The economy will surprise to the high next year, predicts investment advisor

All the concern about a slowing economy may be off the mark, Ark Invest CEO Catherine Wood told CNBC on Tuesday.

“The economy is going to surprise on the high side next year,” she said in a “Closing Bell” interview.

Fears of an economic slowdown sent stocks plunging on Tuesday. Investors were concerned about a possible inversion of the yield curve, which is when short-term rates exceed long-term rates. Many believe a yield-curve inversion could signal the economy is about to slow down.

Wood has a contrarian point of view. She said she doesn’t think the Federal Reserve is being too tight in its monetary policy and she doesn’t believe an inversion of the yield curve is a signal of a recession.

“The yield curve will invert, and one of the reasons is inflation is going to be much lower than expected,” she said.

Part of that will be due to oil prices, but the other reason is what she calls disruptive innovation, which her firm specializes in. That, she said, is deflationary in nature. “It stimulates unit growth.”


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She pointed to history to back her up, saying that going back to the late 1800s through 1929, the yield curve was inverted half the time and the biggest inversions took place during times of strongest growth.

Wood is also not necessarily concerned about the U.S.-China trade war.

“I am seeing the seeds of a massive global tax cut brewing around the world in the form of actual income tax rates in China cut and tariff reductions,” she said.

That said, she’s “happy” that the market is “climbing the wall of worry.” That is the strongest signal for the bull market, she said.

“We don’t want everyone chasing an upmarket.”

 

Source: cnbc.com | Original Link

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