So, I’m sitting here agonizing over whether I should sell short the US Treasury bond market (TLT) once again. Thanks to the bombshell Israel announced alleging the existence of a secret Iranian nuclear missile program, oil has rallied by 2%, the US dollar has soared, and stocks have been crushed. The (TLT) has popped smartly, … Read more
Talk about unintended consequences. Tamper with the free market and it will usually blow up in your face. You would have thought the US steel was going to announce blockbuster earnings in the wake of the new 25% steel tariff imposed by the administration, right? Wrong. Instead, they have triggered a disaster of epic proportions. … Read more
I know from speaking to a lot of you that your entire retirement funds invested in low cost index funds. Those would include the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX) and the Vanguard Total Stock Index (VTSAX), the world second and third largest ETF’s. I have some very bad news for you: the sushi is about … Read more
Everyone always needs toilet paper, right? Wrong. At least stock investors don’t. Once considered the safest stock market sectors in which to hide out during bear markets, consumer staples have been beaten like a red-headed stepchild. Take a look at the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP). It’s top five holdings include Procter & … Read more
It could have been the 3.0% print on the yield for the US 10-year Treasury bond yield (TLT). It could have been the president’s warlike comments on Iran. It could even have been rocketing commodity prices that are driving consumer staple stocks out of business. No, none of these are the reason why the stock … Read more
With the Weekly Jobless Claims bouncing around a new 43 year low at 220,000, it’s time to review the state of the US labor market. Yes, I know this research piece isn’t going to generate an instant Trade Alert for you. But it is essential in your understanding of the big picture. There are also thousands of students who … Read more
I think we are only days, at the most weeks, away from the next crisis coming out of Washington. It can come from any of a dozen different reasons. Wars with Syria, Iran or North Korea. The next escalation of the trade war with China. The failure of the NAFTA renegotiation. Another sex scandal. The latest … Read more
It was if someone had turned the lights out. The homebuilders, after delivering one of the most prolific investment performance of any sector until the end of January, suddenly collapsed. Since then, they have been dead as a door knob, flat on their backs, barely exhibiting a breath of life. While most of the market … Read more
It started with a slow drip. Then it became a trickle. Now it is an undeniable torrent. Negative economic data reports, once as rare as hen’s teeth, have suddenly become as common as NRA bumper stickers at a Trump rally. The economic data flow has definitely turned sour. Is this a growth scare? Or is … Read more
We have had a great run in real estate worldwide. Some markets, like the one in Australia, have risen almost every year for 30 years. But with global interest rates rising, and a recession just over the horizon you have to ask if it is time to sit done when the music stops playing. The … Read more