[Ed. Note: Kyle Dennis runs BiotechBreakouts.com. He is an event-based trader, who prefers low-priced and small-cap biotech stocks. He has no stocks, options or open orders in MRNS, but day-traded it on Sept. 9 for a smallgain. He has no shares, options or open orders on SAGE. To learn more JOIN THIS SPECIAL ONLINE EVENT: 3-Step Plan Kyle Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 and download his FREE “The $2.9 Million Biotech Trader Playbook here!]
First things first! I will be holding a Facebook Live event today at 4:30 PM Eastern to show you my trading station. I’ll also be answering some questions. It’s my first one ever on my own Facebook page, which is right here.
Set your alarms, mark your calendar! Again, 4:30 PM Eastern on Facebook Live.
Be sure to like and follow the page too, because there will be many more to come and you’ll want to be notified when they are up on the docket.
Moving along…
Mr. Market has been cranky lately. This cartoon sums up what it’s been feeling like out there.
In this market, Greed and Fear rule all… or maybe Tweedledee and Tweedledum are doing all the buying and selling.
But in all seriousness, it’s just been volatile out there. Nothing really outside the norm if you consider that we were in dire need of a 10%+ pullback after the humongous run we were given from September through mid January.
Now the big question: “Is the pullback over?”
And my honest answer.
The pullback has almost subsided, but volatility will continue for this week.
The market drop in my opinion was caused by a few things: greed, complacency, and in turn leverage. From the largest of funds to the smallest of traders — we all got a bit too excited. Things got too frothy.
First we saw china stocks running, then small penny stocks, then any and all bitcoin stocks. It was madness and it wasn’t normal.
Larger funds were on margin. Some funds were even on large margin, betting on instruments built for destruction such as the XIV, which blew up in one trading session. From a peak around $150 to $5!
I think this bull market continues, as the fundamentals (even if indeed it is driven by the “fake” money printed by the Federal Reserve) are strong.
So my suggestion?
Be patient – as there are a lot of buying opportunities arising.
But be careful – because I expect the volatility will continue.
And be aggressive – with your trading plan, not your dollars invested. Keep yourself honest. Keep your risk defined. And live to trade another day.
That is what I have been doing. We enjoyed huge gains from September to January. I paired off a few small losses on this pullback, and I’m sitting on a ton of cash ready to pounce.
I always speak of my trading buckets – Scalp Trading, Day Trading, Swing Trading, Catalyst Trading, and Investing.
Depending on the market conditions, some work better than others.
Swings and catalysts have been inherently difficult during this period. However, the day trading and scalping have been absolutely fantastic.
I’m up $22,552 so far this month over in The Nucleus room, even though the market has corrected about 10%. This is mostly from taking advantage of the short term volatility out there — something that isn’t good for swings and catalyst trades, but something that is fantastic for day trades.
I’m expecting to start to get more active here again with the FDA Catalyst plays. We have gotten a nice pullback and many names are sitting near recent lows.
I have two new higher priced names today and I’ll continue to monitor our older names that are at solid support levels.
Just a reminder, charts and targets are updated every Monday morning!
New Catalyst Swing names (1 – 4 week holds) I am watching…
Kura Oncology (KURA)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2 updated data due out February 15th–17th. Phase 2 topline data due out in the 1st half of 2018. Short term possible trade here – out before the data update.
Buy Zone: $18.75 to $19.25
Profit Zone: $20.00 or higher
Stop Zone: $18.45 or below
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)
Catalyst Dates: FDA approval date of April 17th for X-linked Hypophospatemia
Buy Zone: $44.00 to $45.00
Profit Zone: $55.00 or higher
Stop Zone: $41.00 or below
Catalyst Swing names (1 – 4 week holds) I am watching…
Anthera Pharmaceuticals (ANTH)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 3 analysis due in March
Buy Zone: $1.40 to $1.55
Profit Zone: $1.85 or higher
Stop Zone: $1.25 or below
Progenics (PGNX)
Catalyst Dates: FDA Approval date of April 30th
Buy Zone: $5.00 to $5.50
Profit Zone: $6.50 or higher
Stop Zone: $4.50 or below
CorMedix (CRMD)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 3 interim analysis due out “early 2018.” Company should announce a date soon when 28th patient event has been reached – then we will know specific date.
Buy Zone: $.40 to $.50
Profit Zone: $.70 or higher
Stop Zone: $.35 or below
Heat Biologics (HTBX)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2 investor meeting due on February 28th
Buy Zone: $2.50 to $2.80
Profit Zone: $3.95 or higher
Stop Zone: $2.30 or below
Sierra Oncology (SRRA)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2 investor meeting due on February 27th
Buy Zone: $2.50 to $2.80
Profit Zone: $3.20 or higher
Stop Zone: $2.40 or below
Clearside BioMedical (CLSD)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 3 Macular edema data due in 1Q 2018. Likely in mid February.
Buy Zone: $5.50 to $6.00
Profit Zone: $7.00 or higher
Stop Zone: $5.20 or below
VTV Therapeutics (VTVT)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 3 Alzheimer’s data due “early 2018” — likely March.
Buy Zone: $6.00 to $6.50
Profit Zone: $7.50 or higher
Stop Zone: $5.75 or below
EDAP Tms (EDAP)
Catalyst Dates: FDA medical device approval for prostate cancer likely late 1Q
Buy Zone: $2.40 to $2.70
Profit Zone: $3.40 or higher
Stop Zone: $2.20 or below
Immune Pharmaceuticals (IMNP)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2 data due out February 17
Buy Zone: $.50 to $.55
Profit Zone: $.70 or higher
Stop Zone: $.45 or below
Arca Biosciences (ABIO)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2b data due in March
Buy Zone: $1.60 to $1.80
Profit Zone: 2.20 or higher
Stop Zone: $1.40 or below
Flex Pharma (FLKS)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2 Multiple Sclerosis data due out in late 1Q
Buy Zone: $3.70 to $4.00
Profit Zone: $5.00 or higher
Stop Zone: $3.50 or below
Otonomy (OTIC)
Catalyst Dates: FDA approval date of March 2, 2018.
Buy Zone: $5.20 to $5.70
Profit Zone: $7.50 or higher
Stop Zone: $5.00 or below
Nabriva Therapeutics (NBRV)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 3 antibiotic data due out “spring 2018”
Buy Zone: $5.50 to $6.00
Profit Zone: $8.00 or higher
Stop Zone: $5.20 or below
Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2 Candidemia data due in the 1Q (likely sometime in March)
Buy Zone: $6.00 to $6.50
Profit Zone: $8.40 or higher
Stop Zone: $5.75 or below
Sophiris Bio (SPHS)
Catalyst Dates: Phase 2b initial biopsy data due late First Quarter.
Buy Zone: $1.95 to $2.15
Profit Zone: $2.40 or higher
Stop Zone: $1.75 or below
